Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Odds

Sean Chaffin

It was an odds-defying hand most players will never see in their entire lives. R.J. Bergman, 37, lived it first-hand Tuesday afternoon – a gigantic cooler that cost him a bad beat jackpot.

The larger the jackpot, the easier your chance to win! Take a seat at any of our designated Bad Beat Jackpot tables (look for the yellow star), and if your Four of a Kind Jacks or better gets trumped by a better hand, you and all others playing at Bad Beat Jackpot tables will share in the sweet jackpot. Strip Poker: Progressive Bad Beat Jackpots Provides a Big Win For a Tough Loss. How to Play Poker Poker Rules Poker Hand Rankings Poker Tools Hold'em Poker Odds Calculator Omaha Poker Odds. The odds listed are for the Bad Beat wager only, not part of the Aces Up wagers. I only referenced the Aces Up wager because it is listed to hit around 18% of the time (so excluding the pair of aces, the other 2 pair hands and higher will happen almost as frequently for reference to how often you might be eligible for the Bad Beat wager as long as the dealer has at least 2 Pair).

He was at the Casino Del Sol in Tucson, Arizona, mixing it up in some $1-$2 no-limit hold’em cash game. Bergman is a recreational player, visiting the local casinos a few times a year, and playing cash games about twice a month with friends.

Married for nine years, he has a 7-year-old son and has worked at the local YMCA as a program director for 14 years – a job he loves. Along with his local games, Bergman visits Las Vegas about four or five times a year.

“I love playing out there,” he says.

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“Yes, bad beat! Quads!”

Bad Beat Set-Up

Almost no amount of table time could quite prepare him for the hand that played out Tuesday afternoon at the Del Sol. He had been playing for about an hour after buying into the game for $200. A bit card dead, he had about $165 in chips in front of him.

As the hand began, Bergman peeled back in the small blind. The player under-the-gun raised the action to $8. The player in the hijack position had about $75 in front of him and called. A player on the button with $280 also made the call, as did Bergman.

Amazingly, the flop brought for quad 9s and he looked to be in great shape. There were a couple of things to consider. He wanted to win a big pot and reel in both players for as much as he could. There was also a bad beat jackpot of $18,000 to consider.

He decided to slow-play his quads and checked. The initial raiser then continued for $15 with all three players calling behind.

The turn brought the and Bergman checked again. The player under-the-gun bet again, this time $25. The hijack player called. However, this time, the player on the button raised to $50. Still feeling fantastic about his prospects, Bergman just called with his quads.

The next player folded and the player in the hijack called. Now with three players remaining, the river card was the . Things looked great for his hand, and Bergman shoved all in for his last $105. If someone caught a full house or flush, he’d get maximum value for his massive hand.

He was wrong.

The player in the hijack called for his last $30 or so. The player on the button called both players’ all-ins and instantly announced: “Quads!”

The button's was a horrible cooler for Bergman, but he recognized how big a situation it was.

“Yes, bad beat! Quads!” he said after tabling his pocket nines, thinking he had just won the biggest part of the bad beat jackpot, which would be $9,000.

The player on the button, however, flipped his cards too, and they all looked down at .

Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Odds

“I then look over and see the straight flush and my mouth just drops,” Bergman says. “Understandably, everyone at the table was shocked and excited, and started to do the $18,000 math.”

Astonishingly, the straight flush moved Bergman’s hand to third place. Players at the table waited about an hour and a half to get paid for the bad beat jackpot. The player with the quad tens took home $9,000. The player with the straight flush took home $4,500.

Then each of the other seven players, including Bergman, took home $665 each. It was a decent score, but $8,335 less than what he had thought he had won. Bergman was left with a sick feeling.

'From now until I fold my cards of life, I will look at pocket nines and smile, and then never slow-play quads again.'

Foxwoods Poker Bad Beat Jackpot

“The dealer said that he had never seen a jackpot hand with three qualifying hands and that he felt awful for me,” he says.

The hand was still a big frustration even a day later and still leaves him amazed. He posted the crazy tale on Reddit and it received 191 comments by Wednesday afternoon.

“When looking back, all I can do shake my head because the tens were actually drawing dead on the turn,” he says, noting that the only 10 left in the deck, the , gave the other player a straight flush. “They ended up being the bad beat winners, not me who was like a 98 percent favorite. The was something like .08 percent to go runner-runner. From now until I fold my cards of life, I will look at pocket nines and smile, and then never slow-play quads again.”

Bergman has plans to commemorate the hand by getting the picture of the cards printed on canvas. He wants to hang it in his poker room to remind him “that poker is a funny game and even when it does something like that, you can't wait to play your next hand.”

No doubt Bergman will back at the table soon.

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Sean Chaffin is a freelance writer in Crandall, Texas. His work appears in numerous websites and publications. Follow him on Twitter @PokerTraditions. He is also the host of the True Gambling Stories podcast, available on iTunes, Google Play, TuneIn Radio, Spotify, Stitcher, PokerNews.com, HoldemRadio.com, and TrueGamblingStories.com.

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Thread Rating:

brianparkes
Hey Wizard (or anyone),
What is your analysis of the side bet on Four Card Poker called the Bad Beat wager?
It is paid when the player's hand and the dealer's hand are of a value of at least 2 Pair. The player's hand does not have to be higher than the dealer's.
Exampes: Player 2 Pair, Dealer Trips = Bad Beat wager paid for 2 Pair value. Player Flush, Dealer Trips = Bad Beat wager paid for Trips value.
The payouts are:
2 Pair = 4:1
Straight = 6:1
Flush = 25:1
Trips = 100:1
Straight Flush = 10,000:1
4 of a Kind = 25,000:1
The game rules list that the hit frequency is 5.6% and the house edge is 20.3%. Is this correct, especially if you are playing multiple hands at once? Since the dealer is essentially playing 6 card stud (even though only 4 of the cards play), and on your charts on wizardofodds.com, it looks like the dealer should have 2 pair or higher about 20% of the time. I know the hit frequency for a player to get the Aces Up wager (pair of aces or higher) is 18.56%, so the hit frequency for the 2 pair or higher will be slightly less since a pair of Aces do not qualify for the Bad Beat wager.
I've seen a player get paid for the Trips Bad Beat wager 100:1 playing 4 spots quite often. Due to the high payouts, is Shufflemaster's estimation of a house edge of 20% and a hit rate of 5.6% accurate? How would you calculate the hit % if you are playing multiple spots? If the dealer will hit 2 Pair or higher 20% of the time, do the high payout rates make it worth playing if you are playing multiple spots?
Please post if you create an analysis of this on the Four Card Poker section on wizardofodds.com. Thanks for all the great information.
brianparkes
Forgot to post this part: I know the Straight Flush and 4 of a Kind hands will happen very rarely, but what about the Trips over at least Trips wager? Can you expect to get that hand more than 1 in 100 combinations? That is the hand situation that seems to happen often enough with the 100:1 payout odds that seems to hit frequently enough to make me question that the payout amount is high for the frequency of times it will occur.
TheBigPaybak

Forgot to post this part: I know the Straight Flush and 4 of a Kind hands will happen very rarely, but what about the Trips over at least Trips wager? Can you expect to get that hand more than 1 in 100 combinations? That is the hand situation that seems to happen often enough with the 100:1 payout odds that seems to hit frequently enough to make me question that the payout amount is high for the frequency of times it will occur.


It sounds like the bad-beats are based on 5-card straights and flushes, correct?
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
DJTeddyBear

Straight = 6:1
Flush = 25:1

These should be almost equal.
The fact is, in 4CP, flushes are slightly MORE common than straights, so they should pay LESS than a straight. But since the Aces Up bet pays more for the flush, this should also pay slightly more for a flush. But your numbers are out of whack.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗

Worst Bad Beats In Poker

brianparkes
The results are based only on the 4 cards that actually play for the player and the dealer.
brianparkes
The odds listed are for the Bad Beat wager only, not part of the Aces Up wagers. I only referenced the Aces Up wager because it is listed to hit around 18% of the time (so excluding the pair of aces, the other 2 pair hands and higher will happen almost as frequently for reference to how often you might be eligible for the Bad Beat wager as long as the dealer has at least 2 Pair).
brianparkes
The full game rules approved for this state (WA) is on page 10 of this link: http://www.wsgc.wa.gov/docs/game_rules/four_card_poker_bbb_progressive.pdf
if you want to reference it

Rivers Casino Bad Beat Jackpot

TheBigPaybak


Exampes: Player 2 Pair, Dealer Trips = Bad Beat wager paid for 2 Pair value. Player Flush, Dealer Trips = Bad Beat wager paid for Trips value.

Poker Bad Beat Jackpot Odds
Isn't the last example wrong, then? If the player has a flush and the dealer has trips, then the bad-beat should be paid for Flush value, as a Flush is less than Trips in 4-card?
Lack of prior planning on your part doesn't constitute an emergency on my part.
brianparkes
The bad beat pays for the lowest of the two hands, but it does not matter who is holding it (the player or the dealer). All that matters is that both have at least 2 pair.
brianparkes
Now I see the confusion, I put the pay table down wrong. My Bad
2 Pair = 4:1
Straight = 15:1
Flush = 25:1
Trips = 100:1
St. Flush = 10000:1
Quads = 25000:1
Looking at the wrong chart, sorry.

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